The ominous drumbeats of a trade war underscore the critical juncture of US-China relations. It is a good example of, what business theorists call coopetition—the complex game of competing and cooperation at the same time. An illustrative example might be Samsung-Apple’s dog-eat-dog global competition in smartphones and patent litigation, while maintaining a supportive and lucrative supplier-customer relationship. It’s just business.
The US and China face the same complex partnership: increasingly tense competition that needs to be balanced by cooperation. China’ rise to Great Power status creates competition for geo-political influence, national security, territorial control, global prestige, and influence over the many mechanisms of the international order that has evolved– without China– since 1947. Not seeing eye-to-eye is not surprising for two nations with such different histories and cultures. The problem is that disagreement can turn into conflict. An intense trade war could stumble out of control. John Merscheimer, Dean of international relations realists, puts the historical probability of a significant military clash at only 70 percent.
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